IMPACT OF LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF INTERNATIONAL POSTAL SHIPMENT MARKET PARTICIPANTS: ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING USING STATISTICAL METHODS

Author
, Doctor of Science (Economics), Professor at the Department of Statistics, Ukraine, Lviv
, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Department of Digital Economy and Business Analytics, Ukraine, Lviv
, Applicant for the educational degree «master», program «Economics and Legal Regulation in Business», Ukraine, Lviv

In heading

 Economic analysis of law;

Signed print

 27.05.2025

Issues number

 2025 - № 2 (61)

Page

 83-101

Type of articles

 Scientific article

Code UDK

 [339.56:351.816]:342.531.41

ISSN print

 2411-5584

Abstract

 Problem setting. Introducing a zero duty-free threshold in Ukraine creates uncertainty due to insufficient analysis of how international postal shipment market participants will respond. This affects both government revenue objectives and businesses adapting to new conditions. The policy creates tension between fiscal goals and the economic interests of consumers and postal-logistics companies, potentially increasing budget revenue while risking decreased shipment volumes and encouraging informal delivery channels.
International experience shows mixed results from such policies, necessitating careful forecasting tailored to Ukraine’s market specifics using statistical time series analysis to develop evidence-based predictions.
Paper objective. The research aims to evaluate the impact of legislative initiatives on participants’ behavior in the international postal delivery market, particularly regarding the implementation of a zero duty-free threshold.
Paper main body. The study employs statistical methods for time series analysis, statistical modeling, and forecasting that account for seasonality factors. The research identifies the types and interests of participants in the international postal transportation market, analyzes the dynamics in the number of postal operators considering their legal status and main economic activities, and examines customs and other tax revenue from foreign trade.
Using data from one of the international postal operators, while adhering to data confidentiality principles, the study conducts statistical modeling and forecasting of how legislative changes to the duty-free value threshold affect consumer behavior, as measured by the number of international postal deliveries.
Conclusion of the research. The international postal shipment market in Ukraine exhibits robust growth, correlating with e-commerce development and the increasing popularity of online shopping. The expanding operational scope of international delivery providers is accompanied by enhanced budgetary contributions, particularly regarding taxes on international trade and external operations.
Statistical analysis, modeling, and forecasting of international parcel volume dynamics, utilizing historical data from one of Ukraine’s largest postal-logistics companies, did not substantiate a significant impact on consumer behavior following the reduction of the duty-free threshold for parcels in 2020. The global COVID-19 pandemic served as an additional factor mitigating any notable decrease in international shipment volumes.
Examination of historical data revealed that the duty-free threshold reduction did not adversely affect the overall positive trajectory of shipment quantities; however, it precipitated structural modifications in purchasing patterns, evidenced by an increased proportion of parcels exceeding the new value limit. This indicates that additional customs clearance expenses did not constitute a decisive factor in deterring international purchases. However, such regulatory adjustments create an «adaptation period» during which demand for foreign goods temporarily diminishes.
Nevertheless, the consumer behavior question in the international postal shipment market remains unresolved in the event of Ukraine implementing a zero duty-free threshold.
Short Abstract for an article
This article focuses on statistical analysis, modeling, and forecasting consumer behavior in the international postal delivery market in response to changes in Ukraine’s customs and tax legislation. The research aims to evaluate the impact of legislative initiatives on participants’ behavior in the international postal delivery market, particularly regarding the implementation of a zero duty-free threshold.
Statistical analysis, modeling, and forecasting of international parcel dynamics did not confirm a significant impact on consumer behavior due to changes in the duty-free parcel threshold. Analysis of historical data revealed that reducing the duty-free threshold did not affect the overall positive trend in delivery volumes but led to changes in purchase structure: the proportion of parcels exceeding the new limit increased. This suggests that additional customs clearance costs did not become a decisive factor in discouraging international purchases; however, such changes create an «adaptation period» during which demand for foreign goods decreases.

Keywords

 international postal shipment market, consumer behavior, time series analysis, statistical modeling, forecasting, seasonality.

Reviewer

External reviewer

Article in PDF

 Economic Theory and Law, 2025-2-83-101

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Code DOI

 https://doi.org/10.31359/2411-5584-2025-61-2-83

This post is also available in: Ukrainian

27.05.2025